During the semester, the Henry Fund analyst team generates a monthly consensus outlook for the U.S. economy. We survey the 11 fund analysts across ten macro-economic variables, with each analyst providing his or her short-term (six-month) and intermediate-term (two-year) forecasts. These estimates form the basis for class discussion about portfolio construction, sector allocation, and future research.
On Monday (March 4), the Henry Fund team completed its second forecast of the spring semester. A summary of the team’s consensus estimates is provided below.
The team expects slow, positive economic growth for the next six months, with limited negative impact from the government budget sequestration. Inflation pressure is expected to pick up with higher oil prices forecast in the near future. They expect limited stock market movements over the forecast horizon.