What is the
IEM?
The IEM is an on-line futures market where contract payoffs are based on real-world events such as political outcomes, companies' earnings per share (EPS), and stock price returns. The market is operated by University of Iowa Henry B. Tippie College of Business faculty as an educational and research project. More...
- Who can participate in the IEM?
- Are the participants playing with real money?
- Can markets predict the future?
- Can I get historical data from the IEM?
- How do I start trading?
- I need more information about the IEM...
News
October 8, 2008
Obama-McCain Gap Widens on Iowa Electronic Markets
About the only stock that's going up these days is Barack Obama's, on the Iowa Electronic Markets. ...
September 29, 2008
McCain Contracts Shed 10 Percent of Value in Weekend IEM Trading
Prices for Republican presidential candidate John McCain tumbled more than 10 percent in trading on the Iowa Electronic Markets over the weekend, so traders now believe he has less than a one-third chance of winning the popular vote. ...
September 26, 2008
On Day of the First Debate, IEM Traders Still Make Obama the Favorite
On what may or may not be the day of the first presidential debate, traders on the University of Iowa's Iowa Electronic Markets continue to make Democratic candidate Barack Obama the favorite to win the popular vote in November. ...
September 18, 2008
IEM Standings Similar to British Market's
In the British prediction market Betfair, which takes large real-money bets but will not accept trades from U.S. customers, the Democrats remain a robust favorite, with a 58 percent chance of winning the White House compared with the Republicans' 42 percent chance. The IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS also rate the Democrats as the favorites by a roughly similar margin. ...
September 13, 2008
IEM Remains Unchanged
The race between John McCain and Barack Obama, for all the talk of a post-convention Republican surge and Democratic jitters, remains pretty much where it was a month ago and mirrors the presidential contest four years ago. "At the granddaddy of political futures markets, the University of Iowa's Iowa Electronic Markets, odds of the Democratic candidate winning the popular vote are at 54 percent. The Iowa market tends to be less volatile, said THOMAS RIETZ, a research fellow in the Department of Finance at the university's business school." ...
September 11, 2008
IEM Cited as Better Predictor of Wins Than Gallup Polls
Emory political science professor Alan Abramowitz seems to have a mathematical election model that works. Abramowitz's system has correctly predicted the popular vote winner within two percentage points for every presidential election since 1988. The model isn't perfect, of course, but it does factor in a wide range of variables such as GDP, a party's time in office, and recent polls. If you're skeptical of models, check out the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS trading index for the presidential election. For decades, it's been a much better predictor of presidential wins than Gallup polls. ...
September 5, 2008
IEM traders Unmoved by Conventions' Festivities
After two weeks of convention speeches, rallies, confetti, and fireworks, vice presidential selections, a hurricane and various and sundry controversies, traders on the Iowa Electronic Markets said, "eh." ...
September 2, 2008
IEM Predicts Vote Share Better Than Polls
In the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS, a low-stakes trading market at the University of Iowa, participants can wager from $5 to $500 in winner-take-all futures markets in everything from political races to box office receipts. In 75 percent of the cases, the Iowa market prices predict the actual vote share of the election better than polls. ...
September 2, 2008
Studies: Markets Better Election Predictor
Political betting on financial markets outperforms polling as an elections predictor, according to a University of North Carolina study and figures from the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS. Only twice in the century through 2004 -- the 1916 election and the 2000 contest between Bush and Democrat Al Gore -- did the betting markets get it wrong on the popular vote. The story originally appeared on the BLOOMBERG news wire. ...
August 31, 2008
IEM's Success Noted
A story about prediction markets notes the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS, run by professors at the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA. It was set up, initially, to predict two-party presidential elections in the U.S. Today, it makes forecasts of other social and economic events. In the 1988, 1992, 1996 and 2000 presidential elections, the IEM's error between its forecast of share of votes and the actual votes received by either party was 1.5 percentage points. By contrast, the error of the final Gallup poll was 2.1 percentage points. The IEM's longer-run forecasts were "impressive." Its average error was only 5 percentage points 150 days before the elections. Other polls like Gallup had much larger errors in their predictions. The Manila Times is published in The Philippines. ...
