Paul Weller

The University of Iowa

Finance Department

Henry B. Tippie College of Business

Iowa City, IA 52242

Office: S276 PBB

Tel: (319) 335-1017

Fax:(319) 335-3690

Email: Paul-Weller@uiowa.edu

Education

• 1965-68 B.A. in Philosophy and Psychology, Oxford University.
• 1971-73 M.A. (with distinction) in Economics, Essex University.
• 1981 Ph.D. in Economics, Essex University.
• Dissertation topic: Essays on the Economics of Uncertainty.

Work History

• 1997 Associate Director, Center for Russian, East European and Eurasian Studies
• 1997 (May) Visiting Scholar, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
• 1995 (May, Nov.) Visiting Scholar, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
• 1995 (Dec.) Visiting Scholar, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
• 1995 Nomura Fellow in Finance, University of Exeter, UK.
• 1994- Professor, Finance Department, The University of Iowa.
• 1990-94 Associate Professor, Finance Department, The University of Iowa.
• 1989-90 Visiting Professor, Economics Department, Cornell University.
• 1989 Visiting Scholar, European Department, I.M.F., Washington D. C.
• 1989 - Research Fellow, Centre for Economic Policy Research, London.
• 1975-89 Lecturer, Economics Department, Warwick University.

Publications

• "Consistent Intertemporal Decision Making under Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, 45, 1978, 263-266.
• "The Three Consumers' Surpluses," (with Avinash Dixit), Economica, 26, 1979, 125-135.
• "Limit Theorems on the Core of a Many-Good Economy with Individual Risks," International Economic Review, 33, 1981, 625-635.
• "On the Speed of Convergence of Prices in Random Exchange Economies," Journal of Economic Theory, 1982, 71-81.
• "Microeconomic Theory," in J. Fletcher (Ed.), The Uses of Economic Literature (2nd Ed.), London: Hutchinson Publishing, 1984.
• "Forward Exchange, Futures Trading and Spot Price Variability: A General Equilibrium Approach," (with M. Yano), Econometrica, 55, 1987, 1433-50.
• "Exchange Rate Bands and Realignments in a Stationary Stochastic Setting," (with M. Miller), in M. Miller, B. Eichengreen & R. Portes (Eds.) Blueprints for Exchange Rate Management, San Diego: Academic Press, 1989.
• "The Stabilizing Properties of Target Zones," (with M. Miller & J. Williamson), in R. Bryant, D. Currie, J. Frenkel, P. Masson & R. Portes Eds.), Macroeconomic Policies in an Interdependent World. Proceedings of a Conference held at the Brookings Institution, Dec. 1988. Washington D.C.: International Monetary Fund, 1989.
• "Currency Bubbles Which Affect Fundamentals: A Qualitative Treatment," (with M. Miller), Economic Journal , 100, 1990, 170-179.
• "Currency Bands, Target Zones and Price Flexibility," (with M.Miller), I.M.F. Staff Papers , 38, 1991, 184-215.
• "Currency Options and Exchange Rate Bands," in International Economic Policy Coordination, C. Carraro, D. Laussel, M. Salmon and A. Soubeyran (Eds.), Oxford: Basil Blackwell, 1991.
• "Fear of Deficit Financing-Is it Rational?" (with M. Miller and R. Skidelsky), in Public Debt Management: Theory and History, R. Dornbusch and M. Draghi (Eds.), Cambridge University Press, 1991.
• "Exchange Rate Bands with Price Inertia," (with M. Miller), Economic Journal, 1991, 1380 - 99.
• "The Foreign Exchange Market and the Effect of Currency Bands," (with M. Miller) ch. 4 in F. Hahn (ed.) The Market: Practice and Policy, London: Macmillan, 1992.
• Discussion of "The Linkage Between Speculative Attack and Target Zone Models of Exchange Rates," by Robert P. Flood and Peter M. Garber, in Exchange Rate Targets and Currency Bands, P. Krugman and M. Miller (Eds.), Cambridge University Press, 1992.
• "Forward and Futures Markets," The New Palgrave Dictionary of Money and Finance, Peter Newman (Ed.), 1992.
• "Rational Bubbles," The New Palgrave Dictionary of Money and Finance, Peter Newman (Ed.), 1992.
• "Stochastic Saddlepoint Systems, Stabilization Policy and the Stock Market," (with M. Miller), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 19, 1995, 279- 302.
• "On the Advantage to Hiding One's Hand: Speculation and Central Bank Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market," (with Utpal Bhattacharya), Journal of Monetary Economics 39. July 1997, 251-277.
• "Are Technical Trading Rules in the Foreign Exchange Market Profitable? A Genetic Programming Approach," forthcoming, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.

Book

• Editor, The Theory of Futures Markets, Oxford: Basil Blackwell, 1992.

Honors and Awards

• Outstanding Paper Award in Investments at the MidWest Finance Association Meeting, 1997.
• Elected Research Fellow, of the Centre for Economic Policy Research, 1989 to present.

Recent Conference and Invited Seminar Presentations

• "On the Advantage to Hiding One's Hand: Speculation and Central Bank Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market."

  Presented at:

  The European University Institute, Florence, March 1992.

  CEPR International Macroeconomics Workshop, Lisbon, June 1992.

  Third Summer Symposium of the European Science Foundation Network in Financial Markets, Gerzensee, Switzerland, July 1992.

  ASSA meetings, Anaheim, California, January, 1993.

  Federal Reserve Bank of New York, January 1994.

  Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, April 1994.

  HEC, Paris, May 1994.

  INSEAD, Fontainebleau, May 1994.

  Cornell University, May 1994.

  Exeter University, October 1995.

• "Stochastic Saddlepoint Systems, Stabilization Policy and the Stock Market,"

  Presented at:

  The 1993 I.M.A. Summer Workshop in Mathematical Finance, University of Minnesota, June 1993.

  University of Minnesota, June 1993.

  European University Institute, Florence, November 1993.

• "Endogenous Realignment and the Sustainability of a Target Zone,"

  Presented at:

  The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, October 1994.

• "Are Technical Trading Rules in the Foreign Exchange Market Profitable? A Genetic Programming Approach,"

  Presented at:

  The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, December 1995.

  Arizona State University, October 1996.

  The Midwest Finance Association Meetings, March 1997.

  "Forecasting Financial Markets," a conference sponsored by Imperial College and Banque Nationale de Paris, May 1997.

• "Technical Analysis and Central Bank Intervention,"

  Presented at:

  The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, October 1996.

  Conference on Computational Finance, London Business School, December 1997

Recent Working Papers

• "Technical Analysis and Central Bank Intervention," (with Chris Neely).
• "The Predictability of International Asset Returns," (with Chris Neely).
• "Technical Trading Rules in the European Monetary System," (with Chris Neely).
• "Endogenous Realignment and the Sustainability of a Target Zone," (with Dean Corbae and Chris Neely), revised draft, May 1997.
• "An Economic Analysis of Dual Trading," (with Byoung-Jo Chun and Gyutaeg Oh), revised draft, July, 1997.

Work in Progress

• "The Use of Genetic Programming in Financial Markets," (with Chris Neely and Rob Dittmar)
• "Intraday Technical Trading in Foreign Exchange Markets," (with Chris Neely).
• "Option Pricing with Transactions Costs: A Genetic Programming Approach," (with Chris Neely).

Finance Department

College of Business