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Education
 PhD, Economics, University of Minnesota, 1981
BA, Economics, University of Kansas, 1975
Focus
Macroeconomics and Applied Econometrics
Expertise
Dynamic Macroeconomic Theory and Financial Economics
Rational Expectations
Time Series Analysis and Macroeconomic Forecasting
Bayesian Econometrics
Curriculum Vitae
C.V.
Selected Publications
"International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors" (with Ayhan Kose and Christopher Otrok). Forthcoming, American Economic Review.
"Bayesian Cross Hedging: An Application to the Soybean Market" (with F. Douglas Foster). Forthcoming, Australian Journal of Management.
"Habit Formation: A Resolution of the Equity Premium Puzzle?" (with Christopher Otrok and B. Ravikumar). Journal of Monetary Economics 49 (September 2002):1261-1288.
"Evaluating Asset-Pricing Models Using the Hansen-Jagannathan Bound: A Monte Carlo Investigation," (with Christopher Otrok and B. Ravikumar). Journal of Applied Econometrics 17 (March 2002):149-174..
"Risk Aversion vs. Intertemporal Substitution: Identification Failure in the Intertemporal Consumption CAPM,"(with Christopher Neely and Amlan Roy). Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 19 (2001):395-403.
"A Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Macroeconomics," (with David N. DeJong and Beth F. Ingram). Journal of Econometrics 15 (May-June 2000) pp. 311-320.
"Keynes vs. Prescott and Solow: Identifying Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations,"(with David DeJong and Beth Ingram). Journal of Applied Econometrics 98 (2000), pp.203-223.
"An Application of Bayesian Option Pricing to the Soybean Market" (with F. Douglas Foster). American Journal of Agricultural Economics 81 (August 1999): 722-727.
"Endogenous Term Premia and Anomalies in the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Explaining the Predictability Smile" (with William Roberds). Journal of Monetary Economics." 44 (1999): 555-580.
Technical Appendices to "Endogenous Term Premia and Anomalies..."
"What to Do When the Crystal Ball is Cloudy: Conditional and Unconditional Forecasting in Iowa," (with Christopher Otrok), Proceedings of the National Tax Association, 1997:326-334.
"Bayesian Leading Indicators: Measuring and Predicting Economic Conditions in Iowa, "(with Christopher Otrok), International Economic Review 39 (November, 1998) 997-1014.
"General-to-Specific Procedures for Fitting a Data-Admissible, Theory-Inspired, Congruent, Parsimonious, Encompassing, Weakly-Exogenous, Identified, Structural Model to the DGP: A Translation and Critique," (with Jon Faust). Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 47, December 1997:121-163. (With commentary by David Hendry and a rejoinder.)
"A Bayesian Approach to Calibration," (with David DeJong and Beth Ingram), Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 14 (January 1996):1-10.
"A Daily View of Yield Spreads and Short-Term Interest Rate Movements" (with William Roberds and David Runkle), Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 28 (February 1996):34-53.
"Bayesian Vector Autoregressions as a Category Management Tool: An Illustration and Comparison with Alternative Techniques," (with David Curry, Suresh Divakar, Sharat Mathur), Journal of Forecasting 14 (May 1995):181-200.
"Modelling Stock Prices Without Knowing How to Induce Stationarity," (with David N. DeJong), Econometric Theory 10 (1994):701-719.
"The Forecasting Attributes of Trend- and Difference-Stationary Representations for Macroeconomic Time Series," (with David N. DeJong), The Journal of Forecasting 13 (1994):279-297.
"Supplanting the 'Minnesota' Prior: Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series using Real Business Cycle Model Priors," (with Beth Ingram), Journal of Monetary Economics 34 (December 1994): 497-510.
"Integration Versus Trend-Stationarity in Time Series," (with David N. DeJong, John Nankervis, and N. E. Savin), Econometrica 60 (March, 1992):423-433.
"Monetary Aggregates as Monetary Targets: A Statistical Investigation," (with William Roberds), Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 24 (May 1992):141-161.
"The Power Problems of Unit Root Tests in Time Series with Autoregressive Errors," (with David N. DeJong, John Nankervis, and N. E. Savin), Journal of Econometrics 53, (July-September, 1992):323-344.
"The Temporal Stability of Dividends and Stock Prices: Evidence from the Likelihood Function," (with David N. DeJong), American Economic Review 81 (June 1991):600-617.
"Reconsidering 'Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series,'" (with David N. DeJong), Journal of Monetary Economics 28 (November 1991):221-254.
Problems in Macroeconomic Theory: (Solutions to Exercises from the Text by Thomas J. Sargent), 1987. (New York: Academic Press.).
"Analytical Policy Design Under Rational Expectations," Econometrica 54 (November 1986): 1387-1405.
"The Observable Implications of Self-Fulfilling Expectations," (with James D. Hamilton), The Journal of Monetary Economics, 16 (November, 1985):353-373.
"Lucas on the Quantity Theory: Hypothesis Testing Without Theory," American Economic Review 74 (September 1984):742-49.
Linear Rational Expectation Models: A User's Guide, 1983. (Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.).
Working Papers
"Stochastic Discount Factor Models and the Equity Premium Puzzle," (with Chris Otrok and B. Ravikumar).
"Bayesian Prediction, Entropy, and Option Pricing in the U.S. Soybean Market, 1993-1997,"(with Douglas Foster).
"Conditional Forecasting Using Relative Entropy"(with John Robertson and Ellis Tallman).
"A Generalized Volatility Bound for Dynamic Economies"(with Chris Otrok and B. Ravikumar).
"Bayesian Forecasting"(with John Geweke).
Professional Activities
Associate Editor:
Econometrica
International Economic Review
Journal of Applied Econometrics
Other Professional Activity:
Former Director, Economic Research Institute, University of Iowa
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