Forecast Summary: July 2008

The consensus forecast published in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators (June10th, 2008) is for real GDP growth of 1.5% in 2008 (unchanged from the April Iowa Economic Forecast) and for 1.9% growth in 2009 (down from 2.3% in April). The Blue Chip consensus forecast is for a 2008 unemployment rate of 5.3% (unchanged from April) and of 5.6% in 2009 (up from 5.4% in April). The Consumer Price Index is predicted to rise by 3.9% in 2008 (up from 3.4% in April) and by 2.6% in 2009 (down from 2.4% in April). The Blue Chip prediction is that the GDP Deflator will rise by 2.4% in 2008 (unchanged from April) and 2.3% in 2009 (up from 2.2% in April).

The Institute for Economic Research July income forecast is based on data through the first quarter of 2008 for the state and for the nation. Personal Income in Iowa is expected to grow 5.1% in 2008 which is up from the April forecast of 4.7% and it is expected to grow 4.9% in 2009 which is up from the April forecast of 4.5%. The forecast for Real Personal Income growth (personal income growth adjusted for inflation) is 2.2% in 2008 (up from 1.8% in April) and 1.9% in 2009 (up from 1.8% in April).

Our employment growth forecast for 2008 (based on data through June) is 0.4%, which is up from the April forecast of 0.1%. Employment is expected to increase by 0.1% in 2009, down from the April predicted increase of 0.2%.

Forecast Details (tables and figures, 26 pages)

Iowa Revenue Growth Forecast (July 2008)

Previous revenue forecasts: April 2008, December 2007, October 2007, July 2007, April 2007, December 2006, October 2006, March 2006, December 2005, October 2005, April 2005, December 2004, October 2004, July 2004, March 2004, December 2003, October 2003

Higher Education Price Index Rate of Inflation Forecast

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